WHAT'S NEW UNDER THE SUN

Gary M. Kaye, Publisher, Zero Energy News

The Solar Industry is certainly coming of age.  Despite the economic meltdown, the Solar Power International 2008 conference in San Diego was a hotbed of excitement. What's billed as the largest solar industry event in the Americas claimed some twenty thousand attendees.  The full conference program sold out.  And the exhibit floor was crammed with the latest and greatest.  There were some 425 exhibitors, and while another 400 plus companies tried to get in, but couldn't.

Coming as it did on the heels of the eight year extension for investment tax credits, that was reason enough for the industry to feel reinvigorated.  From my perspective, there was far more attention on industrial and utility scale solar, and less on the residential installers of PV and solar thermal.  But given the dramatic jump in energy prices (and now slide) over the past year, coupled with the tanking of the homebuilding market, there were few surprises. 

Perhaps it was my own perspective, but I certainly got the sense that there was an air of invevitability about the success of the solar industry.  Never mind that some, perhaps many, of the exhibitors on the floor at this year's conference will be a footnote to history in another year or two.  Never mind that the housing market may not have even hit bottom.  This is an industry that has been growing by 40% a year over the past five years.  And the promise is that now with longer term tax credits in place, growth will simply accelerate. 

But, throughout it all the economic collapse looms like a dark cloud.  The collapse of the housing market has already beaten down new solar installations.  At Borrego solar,  their mix  has gone from a balance of fifty-fifty residential and commercial to almost 80 percent commercial.  Installers of residential solar confessed that many of their funding sources have dried up, making it very difficult to help homeowners with long term PV financing.  Companies like SolarCity are using leaseback programs, Open Energy is using Power Purchase Agreements, almost anything to help cash strapped homeowners put solar on their roofs without having to front the money.

At the same time utilities are increasingly adding concentrated solar to their power generation mix.  This week, Ausra will throw the switch on a new plant near Bakersfield, California.  On the show floor, a host of companies showed off utility scale soutions, from SkyFuel to GreenVolt and many others.  But even here, there's a concern that a dramatic slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. will force utilities to reassess their needs for new generating capacity, even if the fuel is free.

All in all,  it's a great time for solar.  But despite the celebration of the tax credit extension,  there was certainly more caution in the hall than I heard just a year ago.

Comments

[Sydney]

I was at the conference last week as well and was also impressed with the level of optimism. We'll keep charging at SunRun, too, to help homeowners continue to go solar in spite of the economic downturn. And wow, I had no idea that so many people tried to exhibit but couldn't - we'll have to remember to register early next year!